We’re told that we have 12 years to keep greenhouse carbon levels below 1.5 Celsius from pre-industrial 1800’s levels.
Most climate scientists agree that with current conditions consistently exceeding predicted outcomes year after year, we have already passed the point of preventing 1.5. Yet there is still time to avert breaking 2.
If we do hit 2 degrees, nearly all coral reefs die, roughly 1/4 of the surface of the earth becomes so inhospitable as to drop current staple crop production by 1/3, driving 400 million souls into exodus, fleeing famine and water scarcity in the tropics, while melting permafrost continues to release enough methane to double the heat trapping capacity of all greenhouse gases that humans have ever unleashed into the atmosphere.
We have already passed the tipping point for sea level rise of 12 feet – this will happen now even if we do everything in our power to reduce global fossil fuel consumption in half by 2030 and to zero emissions by 2050.
Mark Jacobson of the Solutions Project has determined we could reach zero emissions using existing tech, using 0.5% of earth’s land surface and coastlines to power 100% of humanity’s current energy use for 10 billion people by 2050, through rapid upscaling of solar, wind and hydropower infrastructure.
But this is only half the story.
Carbon neutrality will only get us to zero emissions – we must also reach net negative emissions by end century to avoid surpassing the 1.5-2 degree point, while effects of gases already released will combine and compound with those we must also continue to generate for years to come, in order to build the new infrastructure we need to complete the transition.
So how do we (or can we even) accomplish this?
Maddeningly, this will require each and every one of the following to be achieved:
1.) Massive government investments: expenditures of estimated $12 trillion for US, $60 trillion for the world. This means a GREEN NEW DEAL which creates a UNIVERSAL JOBS PROGRAM within the existing framework of the global capitalist economy, to increase immediate buy-in with wage growth incentives to stimulate and rapidly upscale the transition, through BUILDING RENEWABLE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE and implementing a network of local, regional, national and GLOBAL CONSERVATION CORPS, charged with the preservation, restoration, reconstruction and adaptive STEWARDSHIP OF NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS, landscapes and habitats.
2.) ELECTRICITY AND HEATING UPGRADES: All residential and commercial building electrical and heating infrastructure. First in the nation, then for the world.
3.) EXPAND NATIONAL POWER GRIDS infrastructure. Then build long distance networks to connect across continents.
4.) TRANSPORTATION: Buyback or pay to remove 3-4 billion combustible engine cars from the global fleet expected to be on the road by 2050, all from billions of private consumers. Only achievable if supplanted with massive upscaling of alternative public/private transit infrastructure. This means cheap electric scooters, publicly subsidized (cheap to free) public transportation in electric buses and trains, ride-share vehicles, with ships and airplanes powered by hydrogen fuel cells.
5.) ECOSYSTEM RESTORATION THROUGH REGENERATIVE LAND USE PRACTICES: Afforestation of additional 1/3 of land surface, mostly grasslands, where 2/3 is currently used or converted by humans, and 1/2 of this (1/3 of total) soil used entirely for mass food production. Silvopasture, conservation tillage, integrated pest management and intercropping methods, suing low nitrate and phosphate intensive plant varieties to reduce fertilizer demand. Moving organic food waste from landfills to composting (1/3 of all food generated globally) and transport to rural farms to replace use of industrial fertilizers. These actions action alone could potentially remove half the carbon of which humans have released into the atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
5.) Multiple trillions paid for MASSIVE TRANSFERS OF TECHNOLOGIES AND RELATED INFRASTRUCTURE from the US, Europe, Japan and Australia to developing and emerging nations, for the 7.5 billion people either alive or to soon be born there, to supplant ‘western’ equivalent lifestyles with less natural resource consumption. Massive solar electrical infrastructure investments will be needed for upscaling (in place of coal and biomass burning) to power the millions of air conditioner systems that will be needed to survive in densely populated, expanding and inhospitably hot tropical areas, as an example.
6.) GOVERNMENTS ENDING SUBSIDIES AND TAX BREAKS FOR FOSSIL FUEL COMPANIES, OTHER EMISSIONS INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES, INVESTMENT BANKS AND FUNDS THAT SUPPORT THEM and political and media campaigns aimed to prevent this transition. Government investments only paid to fossil fuel companies and other emissions intensive industries for projects which upgrade, expand and transform their current infrastructure to accelerate/lead this transition.
7.) Move most of 10 billion people by 2030 away from consuming heavy amounts of resource intensive beef in their diets, to chicken, fish and predominantly SUSTAINABLY GROWN MEAT AND PLANT BASED DIETS. Substitutes (such as Memphis Meats or Impossible Burgers) combined with shift in emphasis to a more ‘ethical’ drawing down of industrial animal agriculture, by eliminating factory farms and using open range pastoralism for chicken and turkey.
8.) Rapidly upscaled RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCTION AND DEPLOYMENT OF NEW CCS TECHNOLOGIES (carbon capture storage/sequestration) that have not been invented yet (seriously, this is an essential, non-substitutable component of the IPCC plan).
9.) Urbanization and DEVELOPMENT OF ‘SUSTAINABLE CITIES’. Mixed use neighborhoods, integrated housing which promotes community and fostering of social relationships, integrated within local natural ecosystems that provide pollution purification (oxygen water and air filtration, cooling of ‘heat islands’) and biophilic services for physical and psychosocial wellbeing, hiking, exercise, walkable areas with open yards, public spaces parks and greenbelts, fewer roads to reduce traffic flows, surface air particulate and toxic gas emissions, locally grown food and renewable energy production. This includes free, locally subsidized and financed transportation.
10.) Equity in EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR GIRLS AND WOMEN.
Most impactful is early childhood education.
11.) SHIFTING OUR ECONOMIC SYSTEMS away from value pricing based on production and consumption of extracted or converted goods to a system which prices value on production, to conservation and preservation of natural resources and renewable ecological services, FROM GROWTH MEASURED BY PRODUCTION AND ACCUMULATION OF FINANCIAL CAPITAL, TO A RESTORATIVE ECONOMY WHERE WEALTH IS GENERATED THROUGH PRODUCTION AND PRESERVATION OF ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL CAPITAL (human and ecosystem services). Levying high luxury taxes on any non-essential goods made from non-renewable materials and/or high emissions processes that cannot be rapidly repurposed or biodegraded.
12.) REFUSE REDUCE REUSE RECYCLE. Everything we consume, made from materials extracted from the natural world, even if repurposed cradle to cradle, eventually ends up either ends up incinerated or biodegraded. Food waste as compost instead of landfill. Plastics and other high energy and resource intensive (electricity and water) recyclable goods effectively transferred and isolated to landfill (plastics) or burned (paper). Low energy and resource intensive recyclable goods (steel, cloth) repurposed and integrated into new supply chains.
13.) SINGLE ISSUE VOTING. Electing political leaders in democratic governments who will legislate to promote environmental stewardship and enforce laws restricting economic activities of shareholders and executives of the 100 companies responsible for 70% of our fossil fuel emissions that continue to destroy the natural world for short term profits, over the long term health of our world that every living thing that will ever be born after us ever will have to live in.
14.) AN EQUITABLE FUTURE IS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE. Environmental, social, ecological, and historical injustices must be rectified. This means putting equal value and care upon fostering the health, well being, and existence of all living creatures. Shifting our collective consciousness to a biophilic centered Deep Ecology, where the interconnectedness, sovereignty, dignity and right to exist for of all life is instilled, where the health well being for all who live is revered and cherished as our holiest of human sacraments.
15.) PRESERVING AND PROTECTING 1/3 OF NATURAL LANDSCAPES TO PREVENT EXTINCTION OF 1/2 OF GLOBAL SPECIES (MEGAFAUNA AND FLORA).
16.) PLAN B: TO BRING HUMAN SOCIETY INTO A STABLE, INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE NATURAL WORLD, WE MUST RE-DESIGN, RE-TOOL, RE-ENGINEER AND RE-OPTIMIZE OUR SOCIOECONOMIC SYSTEMS OF GOVERNANCE AND APPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGY, BASED ON PRINCIPLES OF ECOCENTRIC, HOLISTIC EVOLUTIONARY DESIGN – game theory, individual, kin and group selection, inclusive fitness, reciprocal altruism and free rider mitigation, explorer, resource abundance and scarcity behavioral modes, cooperation and competition, in vs. out grouping, tribalism, resource acquisition, retention, cognitive biases and heuristics, etc.
AND WE MUST WORK TO ACHIEVE EACH OF THESE THINGS POST HASTE. Because Climate Change is Ecocide. Climate Change is Violence. Climate Change is Death. Not simply to one or to many, not just to all who now exist, but to the untold trillions of beings who are still yet to come, to the forever all who are ever be born. Because any and every living soul brought into life after us will have to live with the future we now leave for them.
So climate change is not solely a crime against humanity. It is a crime against all, and against nature itself. Therefore we must begin our path to restitution immediately, as this is our only absolution.